We began this series shortly before the season ended because so many Cubs players failed to reach their expected levels of performance in 2009. Then I got lazy. I'm going to try to pick up where we left off and cover the rest of the team. Some of the players had really good season. Derrek Lee was not one of them. He had his best season since 2005.

Lee's .412 wOBA was even more impressive when you consider that in 19 April games he hit .189/.253/.284 with only 1 home run and 4 doubles. From May 1 until the end of the season Lee hit .325/.415/.627 with 34 home runs, 32 doubles and 2 triples. In 2005 Lee hit .335/.418/.662 so he was close to as good as that season.

Lee is an interesting player in that his wOBA has hasn't been very steady since joining the Cubs. Since 2004 his wOBA has been .367, .446, .360, .391, .360, and .412. Lee's 2006 (.360 wOBA) was largely the result of his broken wrist, but in 2008 he was showing some signs of decline. Oddly enough, Lee's defense improved during the 2008 season. His career UZR/150 is 0.1. From 2004 to 2007 it was -1, -3.7, 1.9, and -0.5. It jumped to 5.2 in 2008 and remained 4.7 in 2009.

There was a bit of luck involved last year. His BABIP was .333 while his xBABIP was .308. You'd think that Lee's line drive rate would have been higher than his career average, but that is not so. His career average is 21.3%. Since joining the Cubs it had been 18.9%, 22%, 20.3%, 20.6%, and 21.5%, but in 2009 it was 19.2%. He also hit a lot more fly balls than he normally does. His GB/FB rate was 0.77 (1.33 in 2008, 1.08 in 2006 and 2007). It seems Lee must have made an effort to elevate the ball more. His FB% had declined every year since 2004 and was down at 33.7% in 2008. Since 2002 Lee had not had a higher GB/FB rate than 40.9%, but in 2009 he hit the ball in the air 45.7% of the time.

Bill James projects a .386 wOBA from Lee in 2010. The fans project a .384 wOBA. CHONE projects Lee to be worth 14 runs above average per 150 games on offense and be +1 run on defense. That 14 R/150 is tied with Ramirez and only trails Milton Bradley's 16 R/150 among current Cubs.

Using a .385 wOBA projection for Lee and 650 plate appearances, that makes him about 29.4 runs above average on offense. His fielding is projected to be +1. The fans have a 20.7 run replacement level adjustment and -10.4 runs for a positional adjustment. That's 40.7 runs above replacement or about 4.1 WAR. The fans projection on fangraphs is for a .384 wOBA and +2.8 fielding and they have him at 41.5 RAR and 4.2 WAR. Lee will easily be worth the $13 million he's being paid next year. Even in 2008 he was still worth $14 million.

Derrek Lee is still a good ballplayer. He's getting up there in age and I don't see any reason to sign him to an extension at this point like the Cubs may be trying to do. That's a bit premature. Let him play out his final season. Hendry has never had a problem keeping his own players when he's allowed to so that won't be an issue. Lee should be really good in 2010, but let's take a wait and see approach.