2010 Cubs: PECOTA (beta) - UPDATED
Written by berselius   
Sunday, 31 January 2010 12:03

UPDATE: I have fixed the pitching numbers. The main problem was with F7 and Silva - BP had split up their innings between starting and relieving but did not split their counting stats as well.

The (beta) version of the PECOTAs are out. There are some kinks they're still hammering out of the system, but from what I understand most of those problems involve playing time and their depth charts/projected standings.

Speaking of playing time, I've tweaked our playing time estimates to include Chad Tracy and Xavier Nady to the team. They bumped Hoffpauir and Colvin off the roster. I think Nady, at least, will get more PT than Colvin was going to get.

For the batters, I'm using the OBP/SLG values given on the team depth chart page and converting them to wOBA using wOBA = (1.75*OBP + SLG)/3, which is the best estimate we can get from the limited data we have so far. For the pitchers, I'm backing out their FIP from the data provided.




Per 700 PAs

Hitter Pos PA OBP SLG wOBA Hit BR Pos Fld Rep WAR FA $ WAR
Geovany Soto CA 556 .355 .465 .362 1.65 -0.18 1.25
2.00 4.72 $17.3 3.7
Koyie Hill CA 157 .301 .348 .292 -2.64 0.13 1.25
2.00 0.74 $1.1 0.2
Derrek Lee 1B 658 .367 .454 .365 1.85 0.08 -1.25 0.20 2.00 2.88 $12.6 2.7
Chad Tracy 1B 157 .326 .409 .327 -0.52 0.06 -1.25 -0.20 2.00 0.09 $0.5 0.0
Jeff Baker 2B 382 .329 .422 .333 -0.15 0.00 0.25 0.00 2.00 2.10 $5.6 1.1
Mike Fontenot 2B 315 .334 .415 .333 -0.11 -0.13 0.25 0.40 2.00 2.41 $5.3 1.1
Andres Blanco 2B 25 .319 .377 .312 -1.42 -0.06 0.25 0.10 2.00 0.87 $0.5 0.0
Ryan Theriot SS 620 .356 .370 .331 -0.24 -0.15 0.75 0.30 2.00 2.66 $11.0 2.4
Andres Blanco SS 105 .319 .377 .312 -1.42 -0.06 0.75 0.10 2.00 1.37 $1.3 0.2
Aramis Ramirez 3B 580 .376 .488 .382 2.86 -0.27 0.25 -0.10 2.00 4.74 $18.1 3.9
Jeff Baker 3B 40 .329 .422 .333 -0.15 0.00 0.25 0.00 2.00 2.10 $0.9 0.1
Chad Tracy 3B 70 .326 .409 .327 -0.52
0.25 0.00 2.00 1.73 $1.2 0.2
Alfonso Soriano LF 558 .328 .443 .339 0.24 -0.16 -0.75 0.20 2.00 1.53 $5.9 1.2
Xavier Nady LF 108 .327 .414 .329 -0.38 0.01 -0.75 -0.40 2.00 0.48 $0.7 0.1
Sam Fuld LF 40 .324 .351 .306 -1.77 0.13 -0.75 0.40 2.00 0.01 $0.4 0.0
Marlon Byrd CF 553 .353 .434 .351 0.95 -0.28 0.25 0.00 2.00 2.92 $10.8 2.3
Kosuke Fukudome CF 100 .370 .382 .343 0.50 -0.33 0.25 -0.90 2.00 1.52 $1.4 0.2
Sam Fuld CF 50 .324 .351 .306 -1.77 0.13 0.25 0.40 2.00 1.01 $0.7 0.1
Kosuke Fukudome RF 543 .370 .382 .343 0.50 -0.33 -0.75 0.60 2.00 2.02 $7.4 1.6
Xavier Nady RF 158 .327 .414 .329 -0.38 0.01 -0.75 -0.40 2.00 0.48 $0.9 0.1
Team
5775 .349 .424 .345 0.61 -0.13 -0.02 0.11
2.58 $96.0 21.3

Pitcher S/R IP FIP LEV FA $ WAR
Dempster S 195 4.21 1.0 $12.1 2.6
Zambrano S 193 4.19 1.0 $12.1 2.6
Lilly S 147 4.02 1.0 $10.7 2.3
Gorz S 97 4.72 1.0 $3.7 0.7
Wells S 168 4.52 1.0 $7.7 1.6
Silva S 52 4.96 1.0 $1.6 0.3
F7 S 33 5.21 1.0 $0.8 0.1
Marshall S 55 4.58 1.0 $2.6 0.5
Marmol R 72 3.85 1.8 $5.0 1.0
Grabow R 67 4.67 1.3 −$0.4 −0.2
Marshall R 50 4.58 1.0 $0.2 −0.1
Guzman R 62 4.16 0.9 $1.4 0.2
F7 R 41 5.21 0.8 −$0.7 −0.2
Caridad R 56 5.34 0.7 −$1.1 −0.3
Gray R 30 5.07 0.6 −$0.1 −0.1
Gaub R 0.5 $0.4 0.0
Maine R 0.5 $0.4 0.0
Stevens R 0.5 $0.4 0.0
Silva R 40 4.96 0.5 $0.0 −0.1
Starters 940 4.38 $48.5 10.7
Relievers 418 4.64 1.0 $1.4 0.2
Total 1358 4.46 $49.4 10.9

 

Group WAA WAR
Hit 5.1
BR −1.1
Field 0.9
Hitters 21.3
Pitchers 10.9
Total WAR 32.2
Total FA $ $145.5
Win Talent 80.7

 

 

PECOTA did not have projections for Gaub, Maine, or Stevens (though they did of David Patton, who shouldn't have a sniff of the roster). Marshall was only projected as a reliever, so I put that number in for his FIP above.

My earlier prediction pegged the Cubs at 84.6 wins. So what's the big difference between this and the other projections?

Pitching.

PECOTA agrees with the other systems and places the Cubs batting WAR at 21.3 WAR. But there is a nearly 4 win difference in how they perceive the pitching staffs. Let's look at the biggest differences

Player IP Average FIP

PECOTA FIP

 Average WAR PECOTA WAR Difference
Dempster 195 3.92 4.21 3.3 2.6 -0.7
Wells 168 4.18 4.53 2.3 1.6 -0.7
Gorzelanny 97 4.40 4.74 1.1 0.7 -0.4
Silva (as starter) 52 4.72 4.96 0.4 0.3 -0.1
F7 (as starter) 33 4.80 5.21 0.2 0.1 -0.1
Marmol 72 3,6 3.85 1.4 1.0 -0.4
Grabow 67 4.30 4.67 0.2 -0.2 -0.4
F7 (as relief) 41 4.8 5.21 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Silva (as relief) 40 4.72 4.96 -0.1 -0.1 0.0

The only pitcher that is projected to be better by PECOTA than the others is Ted Lilly.

EDIT: It was pointed out in the comments that Samardzija's projections were pretty absurd. Looking at the numbers again, that has to be true. BP lists him as pitching 44 innings with a 1.67 WHIP, but giving up 111 hits, so there's definitely some self-consistency problems there (Silva too).

 

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Last Updated on Sunday, 31 January 2010 19:13
 

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