2010 Chicago Cubs team projection [Updated]
Written by berselius   
Tuesday, 19 January 2010 23:10

Here's my numbers numbers for the Cubs that we've been referencing the past day or two


Per 700 PAs

Hitter Pos PA wOBA Hit BR Pos Fld Rep WAR FA $ WAR
Geovany Soto CA 556 .356 1.29 -0.18 1.25
2.00 4.36 $16.0 3.5
Koyie Hill CA 157 .289 -2.82 0.13 1.25
2.00 0.56 $1.0 0.1
Derrek Lee 1B 658 .378 2.63 0.08 -1.25 0.20 2.00 3.66 $15.9 3.4
Micah Hoffpauir 1B 157 .339 0.26 0.06 -1.25 0.00 2.00 1.07 $1.5 0.2

1B









Jeff Baker 2B 342 .334 -0.06 0.00 0.25 0.00 2.00 2.19 $5.2 1.1
Mike Fontenot 2B 315 .328 -0.43 -0.13 0.25 0.40 2.00 2.09 $4.6 0.9
Andres Blanco 2B 25 .303 -1.95 -0.06 0.25 0.10 2.00 0.34 $0.5 0.0
Ryan Theriot SS 620 .323 -0.76 -0.15 0.75 0.30 2.00 2.14 $8.9 1.9
Andres Blanco SS 105 .303 -1.95
0.75 0.10 2.00 0.90 $1.0 0.1
Aramis Ramirez 3B 580 .377 2.56 -0.27 0.25 -0.10 2.00 4.44 $16.9 3.7
Jeff Baker 3B 110 .334 -0.06 0.00 0.25 0.00 2.00 2.19 $1.9 0.3
Alfonso Soriano LF 558 .343 0.49 -0.16 -0.75 0.20 2.00 1.78 $6.8 1.4
Tyler Colvin LF 20 .318 -1.06 0.01 -0.75 0.00 2.00 0.20 $0.4 0.0
Sam Fuld LF 78 .328 -0.43 0.13 -0.75 0.40 2.00 1.35 $1.1 0.2
Marlon Byrd CF 553 .348 0.79 -0.28 0.25 0.00 2.00 2.76 $10.2 2.2
Kosuke Fukudome CF 50 .343 0.50 0.00 0.25 -0.90 2.00 1.85 $1.0 0.1
Sam Fuld CF 100 .328 -0.43 0.00 0.25 0.40 2.00 2.22 $1.8 0.3
Kosuke Fukudome RF 593 .343 0.50 -0.33 -0.75 0.60 2.00 2.02 $8.1 1.7
Tyler Colvin RF 128 .318 -1.06 0.00 -0.75 0.00 2.00 0.19 $0.6 0.0
Team
5705 .345 0.60 -0.13 -0.02 0.16
2.61 $96.3 21.3

Pitcher S/R IP ERA LEV FA $ WAR
Dempster S 195 3.92 1.0 $15.2 3.3
Zambrano S 193 4.05 1.0 $13.7 2.9
Lilly S 147 4.11 1.0 $10.0 2.1
Gorz S 97 4.40 1.0 $5.2 1.1
Wells S 168 4.18 1.0 $10.7 2.3
Silva S 52 4.72 1.0 $2.2 0.4
F7 S 33 4.80 1.0 $1.4 0.2
Marshall S 55 4.20 1.0 $3.7 0.7

S




Marmol R 72 3.60 1.8 $6.9 1.4
Grabow R 67 4.30 1.3 $1.3 0.2
Marshall R 50 4.20 1.0 $1.2 0.2
Guzman R 62 4.20 0.9 $1.3 0.2
F7 R 41 4.80 0.8 -$0.1 -0.1
Caridad R 56 5.00 0.7 -$0.6 -0.2
Gray R 30 4.30 0.6 $0.6 0.0
Gaub R 29 4.43 0.5 $0.4 0.0
Maine R 30 4.73 0.5 $0.2 0.0
Stevens R 33 4.40 0.5 $0.5 0.0
Silva R 40 4.72 0.5 $0.2 -0.1

R

0.5

Starters
940 4.16
$59.3 13.1
Relievers
510 4.37 0.9 $7.9 1.7
Total
1450 4.24
$66.8 14.8

Group WAA WAR
Hit 4.9
BR -1.1
Field 1.3
Hitters
21.3
Pitchers
14.8
Total WAR
36.1
Total FA $
$163.1
Win Talent
84.6

 

For info on how I got these numbers, click the read more link below

This is the same as what I did for the Cardinals projections, except I based the PAs on the community playing time projections here at ACB,

For the hitters: I took the average of the OBA projections currently on fangraphs. For baserunning, I just took their numbers from last year - baserunning is a pretty small contribution anyway so I'm not worried about any big errors there. On defense, I used Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections from BtB, and scaled them based on the number of PAs each player was expected to get. Since 700 PA = a full season I'm assuming 750 PA = 150 defensive games. Probably not exactly right but should be okay for what I'm doing. (Update: I poked through the spreadsheet formulas and realized that the defense is scaled after all in the final WAR number given - this didn't make a huge difference in the final number for the Cubs or the Cards).

I ended up adding more PAs for Baker than we had originally - he'll be an everyday-ish guy and get a nontrivial number of innings at 3b. I also bumped up some of the regulars playing time, notably Lee, Geo, and Fukudome, and gave Colvin + Fuld more innings since there wasn't nearly enough to go around in the OF. I'm probably underestimating the number of PAs that go to replacement level bench players over the course of the season anyway

For pitchers, I also did an average of their IP and FIP projections from fangraphs. I mostly stuck with the ACB innings projections, though I did bump up a few of the starter innings for Silva and Marshall.

For what it's worth, I think the main difference between these and Erik Manning's projections from the previous thread is playing time. I suspect that ACB is bullish on Cubs players PT since we're Cubs fans. He just based his on CHONE as opposed to multiple systems (more or less CHONE, Marcel, Bill James, and the Fan projections).

 

< Prev   Next >
Last Updated on Wednesday, 20 January 2010 00:09
 

Add comment

By posting comments, opinions or questions at Another Cubs Blog, you, the poster, agree to ask yourself one question before hitting the send button: What Would Alvin Do? Alvin is the model blogger/commenter to which we should all aspire. If Alvin would do it, you should. If he wouldn't, get the fuck out.


Security code
Refresh

About Bloguin

Bloguin is the revolutionary blog network specifically focused on helping bloggers get the most out of their websites. We're currently working on building a large network of online communities and hope to expand our blogging coverage to include a wide range of topics.

Advertisers

The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please contact us.

Bloggers Wanted

The Bloguin Network is always looking to expand. We're specifically looking for blogs in the sports, entertainment, and video games field, but are open to adding any type of quality site. If you're a blogger and interested in joining our network, please fill out our application form.

The Bloguin Login

The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? Create an Account!