2010 Cubs: Xavier Nady
Written by mb21   
Tuesday, 26 January 2010 13:51

Since the Cubs signed Nady today, I figured I'd go ahead and get his 2010 projections together.  I had planned to post Fukudome's today, but I'll leave that for tomorow.  In his career, Nady has been worth 3.4 WAR.  3.1 of that was in 2008 when he split time with the Pirates and Yankees.  That's his only good season in the big leagues and it's likely a fluke.  He only had 29 plate appearances in 2009 because of injury. I'll write more on Nady on later today or tomorrow, so let's just get to the projections.

(click the link below to continue reading)

Baserunning eqbrr
2006 0.1
2007 0.9
2008 0.2
2009 -0.2
Average 0

Nady actually becomes one of the best baserunners on the Cubs and he's just average.  His defense isn't so average.

Defense Runs
cairo -3
chone -6
btb -4
dewan -1
fans -2
Average -3

That for RF.  In a later post I'll break it down by position.  he's not likely to play only RF.  He'll get some playing time in LF, 1st base and maybe even 3rd base.  For now I'm just pretending he plays nothing but right field and for the value part of the projection, I've estimated 250 plate appearances.  When we re-run the playing time survey in spring training we can get a group estimate, which would be better than just mine.

 


 PA H HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Bill James 452 121 17 28 85 0.285 0.337 0.469 0.347
CHONE 454 114 16 27 85 0.271 0.326 0.448 0.337
Marcel 275 71 10 18 52 0.283 0.338 0.470 0.349
Fans 473 126 18 29 88 0.284 0.335 0.468 0.349
cbs 469 120 17 35 88 0.280 0.335 0.458 0.353
cairo 356 91 14 22 67 0.280 0.337 0.474 0.349
zips 338 86 12 19 67 0.275 0.326 0.454 0.344
Average 402 104 15 25 76 0.280 0.333 0.463 0.347

A few of those are for the AL so we could probably increase his wOBA projection to .352.

Per 700 PAs

Pos PA wOBA Hit BR Pos Fld Rep WAR FA $ WAR
Xavier Nady RF 250 .352 1.03 0.00 -0.75 -0.30 2.00 1.98 $3.5 0.7

Assuming this is a 1-year deal and the Cubs are expecting 250 PA, it makes Nady worth about $3 million.  Based on this year's free agents, it's about $2.5 million.

[UPDATE] As large market teams often do, they throw a little extra money at the bench players.  Nady's contract is for a guaranteed $3.3 million with $2 million in incentives.  Not bad.  I'm guessing the Cubs plan on giving him quite a few innings in LF to rest Soriano, some at 3rd and 1st as well as platooning with Fukudome.  if he gets 350 PA, he's worth 1 WAR and $4.4 million.



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Last Updated on Tuesday, 26 January 2010 14:12
 

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